Finland vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.5%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.1%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.2%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.5%
59.9%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.1%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.8%
0-4
3.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.1%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Finland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
SUN
10 - 2
FIN
86%
10%
4%
|
54 | 89 | 35 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1977 |
ITA
6 - 1
FIN
86%
12%
3%
|
54 | 91 | 37 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1977 |
SUI
2 - 0
FIN
75%
15%
10%
|
54 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1977 |
FIN
0 - 1
BRD
17%
24%
59%
|
55 | 93 | 38 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 1977 |
NOR
1 - 1
FIN
66%
18%
16%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
ESP
2 - 0
MEX
71%
19%
10%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
0 - 1
PER
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
3 - 0
BGR
58%
24%
18%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1978 |
SLV
1 - 5
MEX
30%
25%
44%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1977 |
MEX
3 - 0
USA
86%
10%
5%
|
83 | 58 | 25 | 0 |