USA vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.9%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
22.8%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2009 |
USA
3 - 2
SWE
53%
25%
22%
|
94 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2008 |
USA
2 - 0
GTM
78%
15%
6%
|
94 | 79 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2008 |
TTO
2 - 1
USA
21%
28%
51%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2008 |
USA
6 - 1
CUB
80%
15%
6%
|
94 | 73 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2008 |
USA
3 - 0
TTO
76%
16%
8%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2009 |
MEX
0 - 1
SWE
53%
24%
23%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2008 |
HND
1 - 0
MEX
28%
27%
45%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2008 |
ECU
1 - 2
MEX
32%
27%
41%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2008 |
CAN
2 - 2
MEX
18%
26%
57%
|
93 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2008 |
JAM
1 - 0
MEX
18%
25%
56%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | -1 |