USA vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.6%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.5%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
54.4%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.6%
0-2
8%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
16.5%
0-3
5.2%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.1%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1974 |
MEX
3 - 1
USA
80%
13%
8%
|
61 | 81 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1973 |
ISR
2 - 0
USA
69%
17%
15%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1973 |
ISR
3 - 1
USA
67%
17%
16%
|
62 | 73 | 11 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 1973 |
HTI
1 - 0
USA
59%
20%
22%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1973 |
HTI
1 - 0
USA
57%
20%
23%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1974 |
MEX
3 - 1
USA
80%
13%
8%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1974 |
BRA
1 - 1
MEX
80%
14%
6%
|
81 | 92 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1973 |
MEX
2 - 0
USA
76%
14%
10%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1973 |
MEX
1 - 2
CHI
50%
24%
27%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 1973 |
MEX
1 - 2
POL
44%
27%
29%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |