USA vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.8%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.1%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
26.7%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2016 |
PRI
1 - 3
USA
3%
14%
83%
|
89 | 45 | 44 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2016 |
USA
4 - 0
GTM
77%
15%
7%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2016 |
GTM
2 - 0
USA
16%
23%
61%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2016 |
USA
1 - 0
CAN
78%
15%
7%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2016 |
USA
3 - 2
ISL
74%
17%
9%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2016 |
COL
3 - 1
ECU
55%
24%
21%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
ECU
2 - 2
PAR
62%
22%
16%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2015 |
VEN
1 - 3
ECU
27%
26%
47%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2015 |
ECU
2 - 1
URU
40%
26%
35%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2015 |
ECU
2 - 0
BOL
70%
18%
12%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |