USA vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.5%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
13.8%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.6%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
22.3%
13.2%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2007 |
USA
2 - 0
MEX
47%
27%
26%
|
93 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2007 |
USA
3 - 1
DEN
35%
28%
37%
|
92 | 95 | 3 | +1 |
| 22 Jun. 2006 |
GHA
2 - 1
USA
7%
18%
75%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2006 |
ITA
1 - 1
USA
70%
19%
11%
|
92 | 97 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2006 |
USA
0 - 3
CZE
30%
25%
45%
|
92 | 95 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2007 |
ECU
1 - 1
SWE
30%
27%
42%
|
88 | 93 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2007 |
ECU
2 - 1
SWE
29%
27%
44%
|
88 | 93 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2006 |
BRA
2 - 1
ECU
86%
11%
3%
|
88 | 99 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2006 |
ECU
1 - 1
PER
56%
25%
19%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2006 |
ENG
1 - 0
ECU
88%
9%
3%
|
88 | 98 | 10 | 0 |