Spain vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.2%
Win probability
2.97
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.7%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5.7%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.6%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.3%
2-0
8%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.3%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
13.6%
10.2%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.8%
0-2
1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1947 |
IRL
3 - 2
ESP
46%
22%
32%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1947 |
POR
4 - 1
ESP
41%
23%
36%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 1946 |
ESP
0 - 1
IRL
77%
14%
10%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 May. 1945 |
ESP
4 - 2
POR
76%
14%
10%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1945 |
POR
2 - 2
ESP
40%
23%
37%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 1947 |
POR
2 - 4
FRA
52%
19%
29%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1947 |
POR
0 - 10
ENG
32%
21%
47%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | -1 |
| 04 May. 1947 |
IRL
0 - 2
POR
60%
18%
22%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Mar. 1947 |
FRA
1 - 0
POR
55%
20%
25%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1947 |
POR
4 - 1
ESP
41%
23%
36%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | +1 |