Spain vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.1%
Win probability
2.95
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.6%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.7%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.5%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.2%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.4%
13.7%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
13.7%
10.2%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.8%
0-2
1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 1945 |
POR
2 - 2
ESP
40%
23%
37%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1942 |
ITA
4 - 0
ESP
72%
15%
13%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1942 |
GER
1 - 1
ESP
67%
17%
17%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1942 |
ESP
4 - 0
FRA
73%
14%
13%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1941 |
ESP
3 - 2
SUI
76%
14%
10%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 1945 |
POR
2 - 2
ESP
40%
23%
37%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1942 |
POR
3 - 0
SUI
58%
20%
23%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 1941 |
ESP
5 - 1
POR
75%
14%
11%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | -1 |
| 12 Jan. 1941 |
POR
2 - 2
ESP
40%
23%
37%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1940 |
FRA
3 - 2
POR
59%
19%
22%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |