Spain vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.5%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.4%
16.2%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.3%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1928 |
ITA
7 - 1
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 1928 |
ITA
1 - 1
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1928 |
ESP
7 - 1
MEX
61%
20%
20%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 1928 |
ESP
1 - 1
ITA
64%
19%
18%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 1928 |
POR
2 - 2
ESP
45%
24%
31%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 1928 |
EGY
2 - 1
POR
50%
22%
28%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1928 |
YUG
1 - 2
POR
18%
22%
60%
|
76 | 19 | 57 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1928 |
POR
4 - 2
CHI
73%
16%
12%
|
75 | 60 | 15 | +1 |
| 29 Apr. 1928 |
FRA
1 - 1
POR
42%
23%
35%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1928 |
POR
4 - 1
ITA
51%
22%
27%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | +1 |