Spain vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.1%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.1%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.2%
17.7%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 1923 |
BEL
1 - 0
ESP
57%
21%
23%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1923 |
ESP
3 - 0
FRA
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1922 |
POR
1 - 2
ESP
50%
23%
28%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 1922 |
FRA
0 - 4
ESP
44%
23%
32%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1921 |
ESP
3 - 1
POR
64%
19%
17%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec. 1922 |
POR
1 - 2
ESP
50%
23%
28%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1921 |
ESP
3 - 1
POR
64%
19%
17%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |