Spain vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.7%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
13.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
24%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
18.3%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 1986 |
ESP
3 - 0
BEL
62%
24%
15%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 1986 |
ESP
2 - 0
SUN
36%
29%
35%
|
89 | 94 | 5 | +1 |
| 18 Dec. 1985 |
ESP
2 - 0
BGR
71%
20%
10%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 1985 |
ESP
0 - 0
AUT
60%
24%
17%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1985 |
ESP
2 - 1
ISL
82%
14%
5%
|
89 | 57 | 32 | 0 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb. 1986 |
URU
2 - 2
POL
47%
27%
26%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1985 |
TUR
1 - 1
POL
23%
27%
50%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1985 |
TUN
1 - 0
POL
26%
28%
47%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 1985 |
POL
1 - 0
ITA
43%
28%
29%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 1985 |
POL
0 - 0
BEL
60%
23%
17%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |