Spain vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
10%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.6%
2-0
14.6%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.8%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.9%
10%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1978 |
ESP
3 - 0
NOR
84%
13%
4%
|
89 | 57 | 32 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1978 |
ESP
2 - 1
ITA
46%
27%
27%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 1977 |
YUG
0 - 1
ESP
49%
26%
25%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1977 |
ESP
2 - 0
ROU
69%
20%
11%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1977 |
SUI
1 - 2
ESP
29%
29%
42%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
0 - 1
PER
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
3 - 0
BGR
58%
24%
18%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1978 |
SLV
1 - 5
MEX
30%
25%
44%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1977 |
MEX
3 - 0
USA
86%
10%
5%
|
83 | 58 | 25 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1977 |
MEX
2 - 2
BRD
23%
26%
51%
|
82 | 93 | 11 | +1 |