Spain vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.1%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.4%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
16.9%
12%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 1969 |
ESP
1 - 0
SUI
80%
13%
7%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1969 |
BEL
2 - 1
ESP
44%
25%
30%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1968 |
ESP
1 - 1
BEL
73%
16%
11%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1968 |
YUG
0 - 0
ESP
59%
21%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1968 |
FRA
1 - 3
ESP
47%
24%
29%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 1969 |
BEL
2 - 0
MEX
55%
22%
24%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1969 |
LUX
2 - 1
MEX
27%
21%
53%
|
81 | 52 | 29 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 1969 |
POR
0 - 0
MEX
56%
22%
22%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1969 |
MEX
1 - 0
COL
77%
14%
9%
|
80 | 59 | 21 | +1 |
| 22 Jan. 1969 |
MEX
3 - 0
DEN
64%
19%
17%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |