Spain vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.7%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
25.5%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 1980 |
DEN
2 - 2
ESP
36%
28%
36%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1980 |
ESP
2 - 2
CSK
54%
26%
20%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1980 |
ESP
0 - 2
ENG
37%
27%
36%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 1980 |
ESP
0 - 1
DDR
55%
25%
20%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1980 |
ESP
1 - 0
NED
53%
25%
23%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1980 |
ITA
2 - 2
POL
66%
21%
13%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1980 |
ITA
1 - 0
URU
79%
16%
5%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1980 |
ITA
2 - 1
ROU
76%
17%
7%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1979 |
ITA
2 - 0
SUI
84%
13%
4%
|
91 | 70 | 21 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1979 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
72%
19%
10%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |