WC Qual. Europe Final
Global 3-2
Spain vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.2%
Win probability
3.08
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.4%
5-0
4.5%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.9%
4-0
7.4%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.2%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.7%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.3%
11.6%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11.6%
7.1%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1961 |
WAL
1 - 2
ESP
31%
23%
46%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1961 |
ESP
2 - 0
FRA
73%
15%
12%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 1960 |
AUT
3 - 0
ESP
50%
21%
29%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 1960 |
ENG
4 - 2
ESP
67%
17%
16%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 1960 |
ARG
2 - 0
ESP
61%
20%
19%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1961 |
WAL
1 - 2
ESP
31%
23%
46%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1961 |
NIR
1 - 5
WAL
54%
21%
26%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 1960 |
ENG
5 - 1
WAL
88%
8%
4%
|
75 | 87 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1960 |
WAL
2 - 0
SCO
45%
23%
32%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 1960 |
IRL
2 - 3
WAL
65%
18%
17%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |