Scotland vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.3%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.3%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
32.4%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Scotland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1965 |
SCO
1 - 2
POL
69%
17%
13%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1965 |
NIR
3 - 2
SCO
34%
22%
44%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1965 |
FIN
1 - 2
SCO
26%
21%
53%
|
84 | 47 | 37 | +1 |
| 23 May. 1965 |
POL
1 - 1
SCO
35%
23%
42%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | -1 |
| 08 May. 1965 |
SCO
0 - 0
ESP
53%
22%
26%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 1965 |
ITA
6 - 1
POL
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 1965 |
HUN
2 - 1
ITA
75%
15%
10%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 1965 |
FIN
0 - 2
ITA
30%
24%
47%
|
89 | 47 | 42 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1965 |
SWE
2 - 2
ITA
58%
21%
22%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1965 |
ITA
4 - 1
WAL
82%
12%
6%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |