Scotland vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.9%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.8%
3-0
10.8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
14%
2-0
15.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
15.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.8%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
18.6%
8.5%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Scotland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 1979 |
WAL
3 - 0
SCO
33%
28%
39%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1978 |
POR
1 - 0
SCO
44%
27%
29%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1978 |
SCO
3 - 2
NOR
84%
11%
5%
|
86 | 57 | 29 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1978 |
AUT
3 - 2
SCO
50%
26%
25%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1978 |
SCO
3 - 2
NED
56%
22%
22%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 1979 |
NIR
0 - 2
ENG
20%
26%
54%
|
77 | 91 | 14 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1979 |
NIR
2 - 0
BGR
46%
25%
29%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1979 |
ENG
4 - 0
NIR
84%
12%
4%
|
77 | 91 | 14 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1978 |
BGR
0 - 2
NIR
65%
20%
15%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 1978 |
NIR
2 - 1
DEN
46%
24%
30%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |