Ecuador vs Paraguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.3%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
3%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
12.6%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.2%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.6%
36.1%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
10.7%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 1965 |
CHI
2 - 1
ECU
77%
13%
10%
|
53 | 78 | 25 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1965 |
CHI
3 - 1
ECU
77%
13%
10%
|
54 | 78 | 24 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 1965 |
ECU
2 - 2
CHI
30%
21%
49%
|
53 | 78 | 25 | +1 |
| 25 Jul. 1965 |
ECU
2 - 0
COL
54%
20%
27%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 1965 |
COL
0 - 1
ECU
68%
16%
16%
|
51 | 60 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Paraguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 1966 |
URU
3 - 1
PAR
61%
20%
19%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1966 |
PAR
2 - 2
URU
42%
23%
35%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1966 |
MEX
7 - 0
PAR
58%
20%
22%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 1965 |
BOL
2 - 1
PAR
38%
21%
42%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 1965 |
PAR
0 - 0
ARG
30%
25%
45%
|
76 | 89 | 13 | 0 |