Ecuador vs Colombia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.5%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
35.4%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 1987 |
COL
1 - 0
ECU
74%
17%
9%
|
64 | 77 | 13 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1987 |
ECU
0 - 0
CUB
51%
23%
26%
|
64 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1987 |
ECU
0 - 1
CUB
54%
22%
24%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 1987 |
CUB
0 - 0
ECU
64%
20%
16%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 1987 |
CUB
2 - 1
ECU
63%
20%
17%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Colombia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 1987 |
COL
1 - 0
ECU
74%
17%
9%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1985 |
COL
2 - 1
PAR
41%
26%
33%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 1985 |
PAR
3 - 0
COL
64%
21%
15%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 1985 |
COL
2 - 0
VEN
76%
15%
9%
|
76 | 59 | 17 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1985 |
VEN
2 - 2
COL
32%
25%
44%
|
76 | 59 | 17 | 0 |