Ecuador vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.9%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.1%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
2.9%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.3%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.2%
72.9%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
0-1
11.7%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.7%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.8%
0-3
10%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.6%
0-4
5.7%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.7%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.3%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 2006 |
ECU
3 - 0
CRC
50%
24%
26%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2006 |
POL
0 - 2
ECU
70%
18%
12%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2006 |
MKD
2 - 1
ECU
30%
29%
41%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2006 |
ECU
1 - 1
COL
41%
29%
30%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2006 |
JPN
1 - 0
ECU
60%
24%
16%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 2006 |
GER
1 - 0
POL
77%
14%
9%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2006 |
GER
4 - 2
CRC
90%
8%
3%
|
95 | 86 | 9 | +1 |
| 02 Jun. 2006 |
GER
3 - 0
COL
76%
16%
9%
|
95 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2006 |
GER
2 - 2
JPN
74%
16%
10%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2006 |
GER
7 - 0
LUX
90%
8%
2%
|
95 | 31 | 64 | 0 |