Chile vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.8%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.5%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.4%
22.8%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chile
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 1941 |
CHI
2 - 5
ARG
33%
23%
44%
|
64 | 87 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1941 |
CHI
1 - 2
ARG
33%
23%
44%
|
64 | 87 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1940 |
URU
3 - 2
CHI
72%
16%
12%
|
65 | 80 | 15 | -1 |
| 09 Mar. 1940 |
ARG
3 - 2
CHI
73%
16%
11%
|
65 | 87 | 22 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1940 |
ARG
4 - 1
CHI
71%
17%
12%
|
66 | 87 | 21 | -1 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 1939 |
PAR
3 - 1
ECU
60%
19%
21%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1939 |
CHI
4 - 1
ECU
52%
21%
27%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | -2 |
| 22 Jan. 1939 |
URU
6 - 0
ECU
70%
16%
14%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 1939 |
PER
5 - 2
ECU
63%
18%
19%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 1938 |
BOL
2 - 1
ECU
51%
21%
28%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |