Bulgaria vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.8%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
14.9%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
10.2%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
26.8%
51.4%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
14.7%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.7%
0-2
10.7%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.7%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.9%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2012 |
BGR
1 - 0
CYP
66%
20%
14%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2012 |
BGR
0 - 2
TUR
38%
27%
35%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 May. 2012 |
NLD
1 - 2
BGR
83%
12%
5%
|
86 | 98 | 12 | +1 |
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
HUN
1 - 1
BGR
46%
25%
28%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2011 |
BGR
0 - 1
WLS
56%
24%
20%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2012 |
ENG
2 - 1
ITA
62%
22%
17%
|
94 | 97 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2012 |
ESP
4 - 0
ITA
72%
17%
11%
|
95 | 99 | 4 | -1 |
| 28 Jun. 2012 |
DEU
1 - 2
ITA
67%
18%
14%
|
95 | 97 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2012 |
ENG
0 - 0
ITA
61%
21%
18%
|
95 | 97 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2012 |
ITA
2 - 0
IRL
56%
24%
20%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | +1 |