Bulgaria vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.1%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
28.8%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1986 |
BGR
3 - 0
PRK
91%
7%
3%
|
82 | 62 | 20 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1986 |
BEL
2 - 0
BGR
67%
21%
12%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
BGR
3 - 0
DEN
49%
26%
25%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | +1 |
| 19 Feb. 1986 |
MAR
0 - 0
BGR
42%
26%
32%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1986 |
BGR
1 - 2
JOR
91%
7%
2%
|
82 | 50 | 32 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 0
CHN
78%
16%
6%
|
91 | 78 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 1
AUT
64%
22%
14%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1986 |
ITA
1 - 2
BRD
40%
27%
34%
|
91 | 93 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 1985 |
POL
1 - 0
ITA
43%
28%
29%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1985 |
ITA
1 - 2
NOR
82%
14%
4%
|
91 | 72 | 19 | 0 |