Brazil vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.5%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.2%
+6
1.8%
5-0
4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
4.6%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
10%
3-0
14.6%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.8%
2-0
18.6%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.2%
1-0
15.9%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
23.3%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
1.1%
3-3
0.1%
0
13.5%
4%
Win probability
0.35
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.1%
-1
3.4%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 1979 |
BRA
6 - 0
PAR
82%
14%
4%
|
94 | 79 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
2 - 1
ITA
65%
19%
16%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
3 - 1
POL
71%
16%
13%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 1978 |
ARG
0 - 0
BRA
49%
24%
28%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
3 - 0
PER
81%
12%
7%
|
93 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 1978 |
URU
0 - 0
ESP
31%
30%
39%
|
81 | 90 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1978 |
ARG
3 - 0
URU
76%
17%
8%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1978 |
URU
2 - 0
ARG
28%
28%
44%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 1977 |
URU
0 - 0
ENG
26%
28%
47%
|
80 | 91 | 11 | +1 |
| 08 Jun. 1977 |
URU
0 - 2
BRD
21%
26%
53%
|
80 | 92 | 12 | 0 |