Brazil vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.7%
Win probability
2.97
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
4.8%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
2.4%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
14.4%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
4%
5-3
1.1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
5.4%
4-3
1.8%
5-4
0.4%
6-5
0.1%
+1
19.3%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
15.2%
15%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
9%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1949 |
BRA
7 - 0
PAR
73%
14%
13%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1949 |
PAR
2 - 1
BRA
39%
21%
40%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1949 |
BRA
5 - 1
URU
65%
17%
19%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
BRA
7 - 1
PER
75%
14%
12%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
BRA
5 - 0
COL
81%
11%
8%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | +1 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1950 |
PAR
3 - 2
URU
49%
20%
31%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1950 |
CHI
2 - 1
URU
42%
21%
37%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | -1 |
| 07 Apr. 1950 |
CHI
1 - 5
URU
44%
21%
35%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | +1 |
| 08 May. 1949 |
CHI
3 - 1
URU
39%
21%
40%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | -1 |
| 04 May. 1949 |
PER
4 - 3
URU
45%
21%
34%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |