Brazil vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.2%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
29.3%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.2%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 3
USA
60%
20%
20%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 1
YUG
86%
9%
5%
|
77 | 27 | 50 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
3 - 2
FRA
72%
15%
13%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 0
BOL
72%
16%
12%
|
76 | 62 | 14 | +1 |
| 14 Jul. 1930 |
YUG
2 - 1
BRA
21%
23%
56%
|
76 | 24 | 52 | 0 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 1930 |
ARG
2 - 4
URU
50%
23%
26%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 1930 |
URU
6 - 1
YUG
83%
11%
6%
|
83 | 28 | 55 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 1930 |
URU
4 - 0
ROU
63%
19%
18%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | +1 |
| 18 Jul. 1930 |
URU
1 - 0
PER
71%
17%
13%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1930 |
ARG
1 - 1
URU
51%
23%
26%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |