Copa America Final Semi-finals
Global 3-4
Brazil vs Paraguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.8%
Win probability
3.07
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.4%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.4%
5-0
4.7%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
7%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
3.8%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.3%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
6.2%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.9%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.2%
11.4%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
11.4%
6.7%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.8%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1979 |
PAR
2 - 1
BRA
28%
27%
46%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1979 |
ARG
2 - 2
BRA
50%
23%
27%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1979 |
BRA
2 - 0
BOL
84%
10%
6%
|
94 | 68 | 26 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1979 |
BRA
2 - 1
ARG
71%
17%
13%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1979 |
BOL
2 - 1
BRA
27%
26%
47%
|
94 | 68 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Paraguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1979 |
PAR
2 - 1
BRA
28%
27%
46%
|
80 | 94 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1979 |
PER
2 - 3
PAR
54%
22%
24%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 26 Sep. 1979 |
URU
2 - 2
PAR
57%
22%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1979 |
PAR
0 - 0
URU
58%
22%
19%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1979 |
PAR
2 - 0
ECU
73%
16%
11%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |