Brazil vs Paraguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.8%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.2%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
8.3%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
9.8%
3-0
14.2%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.5%
2-0
18.4%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.1%
1-0
15.8%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
23.5%
13.9%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
1.2%
3-3
0.1%
0
13.8%
4.3%
Win probability
0.36
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.1%
3-4
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
2 - 1
ITA
65%
19%
16%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
3 - 1
POL
71%
16%
13%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 1978 |
ARG
0 - 0
BRA
49%
24%
28%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
3 - 0
PER
81%
12%
7%
|
93 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
1 - 0
AUT
77%
14%
9%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Paraguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1977 |
PAR
2 - 0
ARG
27%
28%
45%
|
78 | 89 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1977 |
ARG
2 - 1
PAR
76%
17%
8%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 1977 |
BRA
1 - 1
PAR
81%
14%
5%
|
78 | 93 | 15 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 1977 |
PAR
0 - 1
BRA
18%
25%
57%
|
78 | 93 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1977 |
PAR
1 - 1
COL
71%
17%
12%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |