Brazil vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.9%
Win probability
2.77
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.4%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.5%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.7%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
13.6%
8.4%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1968 |
BRA
1 - 2
MEX
79%
13%
8%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 1968 |
BRA
3 - 3
NGA
88%
8%
4%
|
90 | 61 | 29 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1968 |
BRA
1 - 1
JPN
85%
9%
6%
|
91 | 72 | 19 | -1 |
| 14 Oct. 1968 |
ESP
1 - 0
BRA
36%
24%
40%
|
91 | 63 | 28 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 1968 |
BRA
3 - 2
ARG
70%
18%
13%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1968 |
BRA
1 - 2
MEX
79%
13%
8%
|
79 | 90 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1968 |
URU
0 - 2
MEX
61%
21%
19%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1968 |
JPN
2 - 0
MEX
60%
19%
21%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1968 |
CHI
3 - 1
MEX
51%
22%
27%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 1968 |
MEX
2 - 3
BGR
69%
17%
14%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |