Brazil vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85%
Win probability
3.19
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.4%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.8%
6-0
3%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.1%
5-0
5.6%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.1%
4-0
8.8%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13.5%
3-0
11%
4-1
6.2%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.8%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.1%
9.9%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
4.6%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
9.9%
5%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.8%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 1966 |
BRA
1 - 1
CHI
84%
11%
6%
|
90 | 78 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1966 |
BRA
3 - 1
WAL
85%
10%
5%
|
90 | 74 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1966 |
CHI
2 - 1
BRA
26%
24%
51%
|
90 | 77 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1966 |
CHI
0 - 1
BRA
27%
24%
50%
|
90 | 78 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1965 |
BRA
2 - 2
SUN
82%
12%
6%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 1966 |
BRA
3 - 1
WAL
85%
10%
5%
|
74 | 90 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1966 |
WAL
1 - 4
NIR
66%
18%
16%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 1965 |
WAL
4 - 2
DEN
50%
22%
28%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Nov. 1965 |
SCO
4 - 1
WAL
72%
17%
12%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | -1 |
| 27 Oct. 1965 |
WAL
2 - 1
SUN
47%
24%
29%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | +1 |