Brazil vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85.9%
Win probability
3.22
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.5%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.9%
6-0
3.2%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.3%
5-0
5.9%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.4%
4-0
9.2%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13.9%
3-0
11.4%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.8%
9.5%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
4.4%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
9.5%
4.6%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.5%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 1962 |
BRA
1 - 0
POR
89%
8%
3%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 06 May. 1962 |
BRA
2 - 1
POR
88%
8%
4%
|
90 | 71 | 19 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1962 |
BRA
4 - 0
PAR
88%
8%
4%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1962 |
BRA
6 - 0
PAR
87%
9%
4%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 1961 |
BRA
3 - 2
PAR
88%
9%
4%
|
90 | 71 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 1962 |
WAL
4 - 0
NIR
68%
17%
15%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1961 |
SCO
2 - 0
WAL
66%
18%
16%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1961 |
WAL
1 - 1
ENG
21%
20%
59%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1961 |
HUN
3 - 2
WAL
93%
5%
2%
|
76 | 92 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1961 |
ESP
1 - 1
WAL
81%
12%
7%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |