Brazil vs USA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.7%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
20.3%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 1
YUG
86%
9%
5%
|
77 | 28 | 49 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
3 - 2
FRA
72%
15%
13%
|
77 | 60 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 0
BOL
72%
16%
12%
|
76 | 62 | 14 | +1 |
| 14 Jul. 1930 |
YUG
2 - 1
BRA
21%
23%
56%
|
76 | 25 | 51 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1925 |
BRA
2 - 2
ARG
49%
23%
28%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 1930 |
ARG
6 - 1
USA
58%
22%
20%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 1930 |
USA
3 - 0
PAR
66%
18%
16%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Jul. 1930 |
USA
3 - 0
BEL
58%
20%
22%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 1928 |
POL
3 - 3
USA
56%
21%
23%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1928 |
ARG
11 - 2
USA
57%
22%
22%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | -1 |