Brazil vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84%
Win probability
3.33
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.8%
7-0
1.4%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.9%
6-0
2.9%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.3%
5-0
5.2%
6-1
2.5%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
8.3%
4-0
7.9%
5-1
4.4%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
13.5%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
6.7%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.6%
10%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
4.3%
2-2
3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
10%
5.9%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
1.3%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.2%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1945 |
ARG
3 - 1
BRA
66%
18%
16%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1945 |
BRA
3 - 0
URU
54%
20%
26%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1945 |
BRA
2 - 0
BOL
79%
12%
9%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1945 |
BRA
3 - 0
COL
69%
16%
15%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | +1 |
| 17 May. 1944 |
BRA
4 - 0
URU
53%
20%
27%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1945 |
COL
3 - 1
ECU
74%
15%
11%
|
54 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1945 |
BOL
0 - 0
ECU
67%
17%
16%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 1945 |
ARG
4 - 2
ECU
81%
12%
7%
|
54 | 88 | 34 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1945 |
URU
5 - 1
ECU
78%
14%
9%
|
55 | 80 | 25 | -1 |
| 14 Jan. 1945 |
CHI
6 - 3
ECU
70%
16%
14%
|
56 | 64 | 8 | -1 |