Belgium vs Luxembourg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.6%
Win probability
2.74
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.1%
3-0
6%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
3.5%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
16.4%
16%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan. 1946 |
SCO
2 - 2
BEL
74%
15%
11%
|
60 | 83 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 1945 |
BEL
2 - 1
FRA
46%
20%
34%
|
59 | 68 | 9 | +1 |
| 13 May. 1945 |
LUX
4 - 1
BEL
52%
20%
29%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | -2 |
| 24 Dec. 1944 |
FRA
3 - 1
BEL
66%
17%
18%
|
61 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1940 |
NED
4 - 2
BEL
73%
14%
13%
|
62 | 74 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Luxembourg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 1945 |
LUX
4 - 1
BEL
52%
20%
29%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1940 |
NED
4 - 5
LUX
82%
11%
7%
|
55 | 75 | 20 | +2 |
| 26 Mar. 1939 |
LUX
2 - 1
GER
27%
21%
52%
|
54 | 82 | 28 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
GER
2 - 1
LUX
85%
9%
6%
|
54 | 83 | 29 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1938 |
LUX
2 - 3
BEL
48%
20%
32%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | 0 |