Austria vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
17.7%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Austria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 1913 |
AUT
1 - 4
HUN
53%
20%
27%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 3
AUT
66%
18%
16%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1912 |
HUN
4 - 0
AUT
76%
14%
11%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 1912 |
AUT
1 - 0
NOR
69%
16%
15%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 1912 |
NED
3 - 1
AUT
79%
13%
9%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May. 1913 |
ITA
1 - 0
BEL
48%
22%
30%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 1913 |
FRA
1 - 0
ITA
52%
22%
27%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 3
AUT
66%
18%
16%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Jul. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
55%
21%
24%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 29 Jun. 1912 |
ITA
2 - 3
FIN
70%
16%
14%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | -1 |