Aruba vs Guam analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.7%
Win probability
2.42
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.1%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.9%
15.4%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aruba
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2013 |
CUW
2 - 0
ABW
49%
23%
29%
|
36 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2012 |
BRB
2 - 1
ABW
74%
17%
10%
|
37 | 50 | 13 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 2012 |
DMA
3 - 2
ABW
56%
21%
23%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
ABW
2 - 2
DOM
9%
16%
75%
|
37 | 55 | 18 | +1 |
| 02 Dec. 2011 |
SUR
0 - 0
ABW
71%
17%
12%
|
37 | 53 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Guam
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2013 |
TWN
0 - 3
GUM
71%
16%
13%
|
19 | 37 | 18 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2013 |
GUM
0 - 4
IND
14%
20%
66%
|
21 | 49 | 28 | -2 |
| 02 Mar. 2013 |
MMR
5 - 0
GUM
73%
16%
12%
|
21 | 45 | 24 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2012 |
GUM
0 - 9
AUS
3%
14%
83%
|
21 | 88 | 67 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2012 |
TWN
1 - 1
GUM
80%
13%
7%
|
21 | 37 | 16 | 0 |