Argentina vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.7%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
6%
4-1
4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.4%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
19.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 1913 |
ARG
1 - 1
URU
61%
20%
20%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1913 |
URU
0 - 4
ARG
57%
21%
22%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1912 |
URU
1 - 3
ARG
60%
20%
21%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 1912 |
ARG
3 - 3
URU
59%
20%
22%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1912 |
ARG
0 - 1
URU
61%
19%
20%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 1913 |
ARG
1 - 1
URU
61%
20%
20%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1913 |
URU
0 - 4
ARG
57%
21%
22%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 1912 |
URU
1 - 3
ARG
60%
20%
21%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1912 |
ROS
0 - 4
URU
4%
12%
84%
|
72 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1912 |
ARG
3 - 3
URU
59%
20%
22%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |