Germany vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.3%
Win probability
2.97
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5.4%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.1%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.7%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.5%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.4%
14.1%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
14.1%
11.6%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
GER
2 - 1
LUX
85%
9%
6%
|
83 | 55 | 28 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
GER
1 - 1
HUN
59%
18%
23%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1938 |
GER
1 - 1
SUI
83%
10%
7%
|
83 | 61 | 22 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1937 |
GER
5 - 0
SWE
65%
17%
19%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1937 |
GER
3 - 0
NOR
71%
15%
14%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 1938 |
POR
4 - 0
HUN
36%
21%
43%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1936 |
POR
1 - 3
GER
38%
22%
40%
|
72 | 82 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Jan. 1936 |
POR
2 - 3
AUT
32%
22%
47%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1935 |
POR
3 - 3
ESP
39%
23%
38%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1934 |
POR
1 - 2
ESP
40%
24%
37%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |