Germany vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.1%
Win probability
3.28
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.4%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.9%
6-0
2.9%
7-1
1.1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.2%
5-0
5.3%
6-1
2.3%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.1%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
4.3%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
13.4%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
6.5%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.4%
2-0
9%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.8%
10.1%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
4.4%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
10.1%
5.7%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.2%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 1959 |
SCO
3 - 2
GER
39%
23%
38%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1958 |
GER
3 - 0
BGR
81%
11%
7%
|
85 | 69 | 16 | +1 |
| 19 Nov. 1958 |
GER
2 - 2
AUT
68%
17%
15%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1958 |
FRA
2 - 2
GER
44%
22%
34%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1958 |
DEN
1 - 1
GER
32%
22%
46%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct. 1958 |
IRL
2 - 2
POL
67%
16%
17%
|
63 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1958 |
POL
1 - 3
HUN
10%
15%
76%
|
63 | 91 | 28 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 1958 |
DDR
1 - 1
POL
21%
22%
57%
|
63 | 16 | 47 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 1958 |
POL
1 - 2
SCO
37%
23%
40%
|
63 | 83 | 20 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1958 |
DEN
3 - 2
POL
76%
14%
10%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | -1 |