Germany vs Luxembourg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85%
Win probability
3.49
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.7%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1%
7-0
1.6%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.3%
6-0
3.2%
7-1
1.4%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.9%
5-0
5.5%
6-1
2.8%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
4.8%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.1%
3-0
9%
4-1
6.9%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.4%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.3%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
6.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
15.7%
9.4%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
3.9%
2-2
3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
9.4%
5.6%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
1.1%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
GER
1 - 1
HUN
59%
18%
23%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1938 |
GER
1 - 1
SUI
83%
10%
7%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1937 |
GER
5 - 0
SWE
65%
17%
19%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 Oct. 1937 |
GER
3 - 0
NOR
71%
15%
14%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1937 |
GER
4 - 1
EST
85%
9%
5%
|
82 | 58 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Luxembourg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 1938 |
LUX
2 - 3
BEL
48%
20%
32%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1938 |
LUX
0 - 6
HUN
26%
20%
54%
|
55 | 80 | 25 | -1 |
| 28 Nov. 1937 |
NED
4 - 0
LUX
81%
11%
8%
|
56 | 77 | 21 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 1937 |
LUX
2 - 3
GER
29%
21%
50%
|
56 | 81 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1936 |
GER
7 - 2
LUX
84%
10%
6%
|
56 | 82 | 26 | 0 |