Germany vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.6%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.3%
27.1%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 1939 |
GER
4 - 4
MOR
71%
15%
13%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1939 |
BGR
1 - 2
GER
38%
22%
41%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1939 |
YUG
1 - 5
GER
39%
21%
40%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 1939 |
HUN
5 - 1
GER
59%
18%
22%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Aug. 1939 |
SVK
2 - 0
GER
40%
22%
38%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 1939 |
SUI
3 - 1
ITA
37%
23%
40%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 1939 |
FIN
2 - 3
ITA
37%
23%
40%
|
88 | 56 | 32 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1939 |
ROU
0 - 1
ITA
37%
23%
40%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 1939 |
HUN
1 - 3
ITA
53%
21%
27%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1939 |
YUG
1 - 2
ITA
38%
23%
40%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |