Germany vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.3%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
25.6%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 1924 |
HUN
4 - 1
GER
71%
15%
14%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1924 |
GER
1 - 4
SWE
47%
23%
30%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 1924 |
NOR
0 - 2
GER
51%
21%
28%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1924 |
NED
0 - 1
GER
70%
16%
14%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 1924 |
GER
4 - 3
AUT
49%
23%
28%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 1924 |
ITA
2 - 2
SWE
47%
23%
30%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1924 |
SUI
2 - 1
ITA
54%
22%
24%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 May. 1924 |
ITA
2 - 0
LUX
67%
18%
15%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 May. 1924 |
ITA
1 - 0
ESP
45%
24%
31%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1924 |
HUN
7 - 1
ITA
71%
16%
13%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |