Germany vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.9%
Win probability
2.71
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.8%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.7%
14.5%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.5%
9.6%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 1966 |
ENG
1 - 0
GER
70%
16%
14%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1965 |
GER
1 - 1
ITA
53%
22%
25%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 1964 |
FIN
1 - 4
GER
26%
21%
53%
|
86 | 44 | 42 | 0 |
| 12 May. 1964 |
GER
2 - 2
SCO
62%
19%
20%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1964 |
ALG
2 - 0
GER
33%
22%
44%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 1966 |
BGR
4 - 2
NOR
68%
18%
14%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1966 |
BGR
6 - 1
YUG
34%
25%
41%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 1966 |
HUN
3 - 1
BGR
89%
7%
4%
|
77 | 91 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 1966 |
POR
3 - 0
BGR
69%
17%
14%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 1966 |
BRA
2 - 0
BGR
85%
10%
5%
|
78 | 91 | 13 | -1 |