West Germany vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.5%
Win probability
3.18
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.6%
6-0
2.6%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.7%
5-0
4.8%
6-1
2.2%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.5%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
4.1%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.7%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.6%
11%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
4.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11%
6.5%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
1.5%
1-2
2%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.7%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
West Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
POL
75%
14%
11%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1978 |
SWE
3 - 1
BRD
28%
27%
45%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 1
BRA
57%
23%
20%
|
93 | 92 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 1978 |
BRD
1 - 0
SUN
73%
18%
9%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | +1 |
| 22 Feb. 1978 |
BRD
2 - 1
ENG
66%
21%
14%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 1978 |
TUN
3 - 1
MEX
46%
25%
29%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1978 |
FIN
0 - 1
MEX
20%
21%
60%
|
83 | 54 | 29 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
ESP
2 - 0
MEX
71%
19%
10%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
0 - 1
PER
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
3 - 0
BGR
58%
24%
18%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |