West Germany vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.4%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.3%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
20.2%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
West Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 1961 |
BRD
2 - 1
GRC
77%
14%
9%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1961 |
BRD
2 - 1
NIR
78%
13%
9%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 1960 |
GRC
0 - 3
BRD
35%
23%
42%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1960 |
NIR
3 - 4
BRD
43%
22%
35%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 1960 |
ISL
0 - 5
BRD
37%
23%
41%
|
81 | 62 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 1962 |
BEL
1 - 3
ITA
32%
24%
44%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1962 |
ITA
2 - 1
FRA
75%
15%
10%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 1961 |
ITA
6 - 0
ISR
83%
10%
6%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 1961 |
ISR
2 - 4
ITA
52%
22%
26%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 1961 |
ITA
4 - 1
ARG
45%
23%
31%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |