Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 3-6
River Plate vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
7.7%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.3%
2-0
0.9%
3-1
0.5%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.5%
1-0
3%
2-1
2.3%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
5.9%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
15.2%
77.1%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22.7%
0-2
13.9%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.4%
0-3
11.2%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
16.2%
0-4
6.8%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
9.2%
0-5
3.3%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
4.2%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.7%
0-7
0.5%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.6%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
RIP
3 - 1
SER
72%
17%
10%
|
46 | 30 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2012 |
ITA
1 - 0
RIP
31%
25%
44%
|
47 | 40 | 7 | -1 |
| 26 Feb. 2012 |
RIP
1 - 0
GUA
64%
20%
16%
|
47 | 38 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2012 |
SDF
2 - 1
RIP
34%
26%
41%
|
48 | 44 | 4 | -1 |
| 16 Feb. 2012 |
RIP
4 - 1
LAG
67%
19%
14%
|
47 | 36 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
CAC
1 - 2
GRE
8%
18%
75%
|
81 | 42 | 39 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2012 |
CAX
1 - 1
GRE
21%
24%
54%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2012 |
SCI
1 - 2
GRE
58%
23%
20%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2012 |
ECS
2 - 1
GRE
15%
21%
64%
|
81 | 57 | 24 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
GRE
4 - 1
SAN
86%
11%
4%
|
81 | 50 | 31 | 0 |