Progresso vs Calcio Certaldo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.7%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.9%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
18.6%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+50%
+174%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
38
7º
18º
14º
27
16º
18º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
0% | |
|
2º
|
72 | 72 |
2º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
59 | 62 |
3º
|
73.5% | |
|
6º
|
58 | 61 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
3º
|
61 | 61 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
60 | 60 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 47 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
47 | 47 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
47 | 47 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
42 | 45 |
10º
|
50.5% | |
|
10º
|
44 | 45 |
11º
|
50.5% | |
|
11º
|
44 | 44 |
12º
|
50.5% | |
|
13º
|
41 | 41 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
94% | |
|
15º
|
32 | 33 |
15º
|
94% | |
|
16º
|
28 | 28 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
23 | 23 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
94% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
6% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progresso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
IMO
3 - 1
PRO
73%
19%
9%
|
26 | 43 | 17 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
PRO
0 - 0
SAN
16%
21%
63%
|
26 | 40 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
FOR
2 - 0
PRO
77%
15%
8%
|
27 | 41 | 14 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 2023 |
PRO
2 - 2
MEZ
35%
26%
40%
|
27 | 31 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
SAM
1 - 0
PRO
58%
23%
20%
|
28 | 35 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Calcio Certaldo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
CER
1 - 3
FOR
17%
21%
62%
|
19 | 41 | 22 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
MEZ
0 - 2
CER
65%
19%
16%
|
18 | 30 | 12 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
CER
0 - 1
SAM
18%
20%
62%
|
19 | 34 | 15 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 2023 |
CER
1 - 3
CAR
10%
18%
72%
|
19 | 50 | 31 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
ACA
0 - 0
CER
72%
17%
11%
|
19 | 38 | 19 | 0 |