SC Freital vs Budissa Bautzen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.4%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.1%
1-0
5%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.3%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22.1%
40.5%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
4.3%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
12.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-25%
+10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
15º
14º
7
1º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
11 | 66 |
1º
|
43.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 60 |
2º
|
21% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 60 |
3º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 58 |
4º
|
20% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 50 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 48 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 48 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
|
7º
|
7 | 45 |
8º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 40 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
14º
|
3 | 35 |
10º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 35 |
11º
|
12.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 30 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 30 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
1 | 27 |
14º
|
17% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 26 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 18 |
16º
|
42% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
54% | 95% |
|
Relegation
|
46% | 4% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SC Freital
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
SCF
1 - 2
SGD
4%
9%
87%
|
33 | 75 | 42 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2024 |
UNI
2 - 1
SCF
43%
23%
34%
|
34 | 33 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
SCF
1 - 3
AUE
29%
25%
46%
|
35 | 43 | 8 | -1 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
VFL
2 - 3
SCF
38%
23%
40%
|
35 | 30 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
SCF
1 - 0
FSV
54%
21%
25%
|
35 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Budissa Bautzen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jun. 2024 |
BUD
4 - 3
VFB
32%
22%
47%
|
33 | 37 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
LFC
2 - 3
BUD
37%
24%
39%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | +1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
BUD
2 - 2
PLA
14%
22%
65%
|
31 | 47 | 16 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
EWD
3 - 1
BUD
53%
21%
27%
|
32 | 33 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
BUD
3 - 3
SVG
51%
22%
27%
|
32 | 30 | 2 | 0 |