Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 1-1
São Paulo vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.4%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.2%
14.4%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 2012 |
PPE
0 - 0
SAO
24%
25%
52%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
1 - 1
SAO
26%
25%
50%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2012 |
SAO
2 - 1
NAU
68%
20%
12%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
SAO
44%
25%
31%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
SAO
5 - 0
UCH
64%
22%
15%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
1 - 1
SAO
26%
25%
50%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2012 |
SAN
1 - 1
UCO
25%
23%
53%
|
75 | 57 | 18 | -1 |
| 14 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 1
SAN
74%
16%
9%
|
74 | 58 | 16 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 2
UCO
54%
24%
23%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 1
IND
46%
25%
29%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |