Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 5-3
São Paulo vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.5%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
32.1%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2016 |
STR
1 - 1
SAO
35%
24%
42%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2016 |
AUD
4 - 1
SAO
20%
25%
55%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2016 |
SAO
2 - 1
RIV
44%
25%
31%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2016 |
SAO
1 - 0
SAO
15%
24%
61%
|
82 | 62 | 20 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2016 |
SAO
6 - 0
TRU
67%
20%
13%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2016 |
AME
0 - 1
TOL
49%
25%
26%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2016 |
GRE
1 - 0
TOL
45%
25%
30%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
4 - 2
VER
59%
22%
18%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
2 - 1
SLO
49%
26%
25%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2016 |
QRO
0 - 0
TOL
37%
27%
37%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |