Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 2-1
São Paulo vs Fluminense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.6%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.8%
12.6%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
FFL
2 - 2
SAO
27%
24%
49%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2003 |
SAO
2 - 1
VAS
63%
20%
17%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2003 |
SAO
1 - 0
PAY
71%
17%
12%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2003 |
VAS
3 - 2
SAO
39%
25%
37%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2003 |
FOR
0 - 2
SAO
24%
24%
52%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
VAS
1 - 0
FLU
54%
23%
23%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2003 |
ATM
0 - 2
FLU
63%
20%
17%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2003 |
FLU
2 - 0
GRE
45%
25%
31%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2003 |
PAR
2 - 0
FLU
47%
24%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2003 |
SCI
0 - 1
FLU
52%
24%
24%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |